Fischer D.J., Bowles J., Kleimann N.S. andColton T. The Center for an Urban Future is a project of City Futures, Inc.(2006)Center For An Urban FutureCHANCE OF A LIFETIMEThe first trend in N.Y. is a matter of demographics. By 2010, approximately 64 million workers nationally - four in every ten American workers - will be poised
for retirement. Though many of these aging workers are likely to remain at
their jobs for years yet, over the next two decades it is a demographic certainty that millions of skilled workers will retire, leaving key sectors of the economy in need of replacements. In New York City, retirements threaten to cause significant employee shortages in more than a half dozen industries, from automotive maintenance and construction to nursing and aviation.
The second trend could prove no less significant for the city's economic future. Increasing numbers of Americans between the ages of 16 & 24 are "disconnected": out of school and out of the workforce, neither employed nor looking for jobs. By 2008, it's estimated that there will be as many as three million of them nationwide; already, close to 200,000 call New York City home, by far the most of any American city.
On their own, both developments pose risks for the city and the country. Together, however, they present an opportunity for stunning progress on some of our thorniest social and economic issues.
